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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: BOU
Regional NWS Weather Office: Denver/Boulder, CO

000
FXUS65 KBOU 161710
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1110 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Adjusted the pops across the cwa this morning as well as this
aftn. Best chance for showers and tstms this aftn will be along
the higher terrain west and southwest of Denver. Cool and
relatively stable. Storms that do develop will produce some brief
light rainfall and wind gusts around 30 mph. RAP CAPES by mid
afternoon only around 300 j/kg for 21z with little if any qpf
generated by the models around the cwa this aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Water vapor imagery showing back end of upper trof nearing Park
county and continuing to move east and northeast. Ahead of the
trof there is still scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over
far Eastern Colorado, while mountain and foothills locales
showing more isolated coverage of light showers. The trend for
today is for decreasing showers/storms during the morning hours as
the trof move east.

QG fields showing increasing subsident airmass moving into much
of the region during the day behind the disturbance. There will
still be enough moisture and marginal instability for some
showers/storms over mountains and higher terrain this afternoon
but significant drying expected out over the plains this
afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler today behind last evenings
cold front. Readings will be in the 70s over lower elevations
this afternoon. Showers will diminish early this evening with lack
of any upper air support and the end of surface heating.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

WNW flow aloft will be over the area on Thu as a sfc lee trough
develops over ern CO.  Enough moisture will linger for a slight chc
of storms from the higher terrain across the plains fm aftn thru the
early evening hours. As for highs, temps in the 850-700 layer
rise fm 5 to 6 degrees so readings will be in the 80s across the
plains.

On Fri the flow aloft will become more wly with less moisture thus
activity will be more isold and confined to the higher terrain.
Temperatures will continue to wrm a few more degrees as highs get
back to seasonal normals.

For the weekend the flow aloft will become more swly.  There will be
some subtropical moisture embedded in the flow so will probably see
a slightly better chc of tstms both days. Highs across nern CO
will range fm the upper 80s to lower 90s both days.

On Mon little change is expected as some subtropical moisture may
still affect the area bringing at least a slight chc of storms to
the area. Highs will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s across
the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

VFR conditions expected the rest of today. Any showers or storms
that occur later this afternoon and evening will mainly be
confined to mountains and higher terrain and may clip BJC. Surface
winds this morning will be transition from northeasterly to east-
southeasterly this aftn and should remain under 10 kts, then
switch to drainage this evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Entrekin

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather